The Canadian people have spoken by re-electing the Liberals, this time led by Mark Carney. In response, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith issued a cryptic statement that her province would SA国际影视传媒渄iscuss its future,SA国际影视传媒� SA国际影视传媒渁ssess various optionsSA国际影视传媒� and SA国际影视传媒渃hoose a path forward."

Alberta separatist rhetoric, notably in an April 29 Western Standard editorial and on social media all throughout the campaign, has been especially heated during this campaign, with calls for the province to become independent of Canada or welcoming annexation by the United States.

Given that the Northwest Territories shares a long border with Alberta, a shared history through Treaty 8, and a steady movement of people between the two jurisdictions, one might wonder: what would Alberta secession mean for the North? And is it even legally possible?

Over the weekend, I reached out to Dr. Kent McNeil, a constitutional scholar and distinguished research professor emeritus at Osgoode Hall Law School. He specializes in treaty law and how it intersects with Canadian Constitutional law. He basically told me that Alberta seeking independence from Canada poses more questions than answers.

SA国际影视传媒淭hereSA国际影视传媒檚 no clear precedent,SA国际影视传媒� McNeil told me. SA国际影视传媒淭he situation is complicated SA国际影视传媒� and in many ways, unprecedented.SA国际影视传媒�

Any serious attempt by Alberta to secede would be subject to the Clarity Act, which was passed after QuebecSA国际影视传媒檚 failed 1995 referendum. That act requires a SA国际影视传媒渃lear questionSA国际影视传媒� and a SA国际影视传媒渃lear majoritySA国际影视传媒� voting in favour of separation for any province to leave Canada SA国际影视传媒� though neither term is defined in law. According to the act, if those conditions are met, the federal government may begin negotiations, but even that isnSA国际影视传媒檛 guaranteed.

SA国际影视传媒淚t's very difficult to say what the outcomes might be and very complicated, I would say all around,SA国际影视传媒� McNeil said.

He pointed out that the Constitution Act of 1871 allowed Canada to create provinces after Confederation, including the Alberta Act and Saskatchewan Act, which are enshrined in the Constitution.

SA国际影视传媒淐anada could just say, Well, you know, we created you as a province. You can't just leave,SA国际影视传媒� he said.

Treaty law impacts

Complicating matters further is how treaty law and Indigenous title to land would be impacted. Alberta sits atop multiple historic treaties with Indigenous peoples SA国际影视传媒� including treaties 6, 7, and 8, as well as parts of treaties 4 and 10. Most were signed before the Province of Alberta was created in 1905 and were understood by signatories to be co-existence agreements between First Nations and the Crown SA国际影视传媒� all protected under the Constitution, 1982.

Of note, Treaty 8 in Northern Alberta, includes Indigenous communities in the NWTSA国际影视传媒檚 South Slave region as well as large swaths of land in northern B.C. and Saskatchewan.

SA国际影视传媒淭hese treaties werenSA国际影视传媒檛 land surrenders,SA国际影视传媒� McNeil emphasized. SA国际影视传媒淭hey were meant to be agreements to share the land SA国际影视传媒� not to extinguish rights.SA国际影视传媒�

In international law, when a new state forms SA国际影视传媒� as Alberta would be if it left SA国际影视传媒� McNeil said that, typically, the treaty obligations of the predecessor state would be acquired by the new one. That means Alberta wouldnSA国际影视传媒檛 be able to simply discard Crown-Indigenous treaty agreements.

But it would present new legal uncertainties because Indigenous legal rights would no longer be constitutionally bound by CanadaSA国际影视传媒檚 Charter or Section 35 of CanadaSA国际影视传媒檚 Constitution.

SA国际影视传媒淎lberta would have to write a new constitution, and we donSA国际影视传媒檛 know what that would include," McNeil said. "ThereSA国际影视传媒檚 no guarantee it would recognize or uphold those treaty rights.SA国际影视传媒�

Whose land, whose decision?

The only precedent when Canada has confronted provinces attempting separation has been in the cases of Quebec holding referendums in 1980 and 1995. Those secessionist efforts were understood to be based on the distinction of the francophone language and culture as SA国际影视传媒榓 people.SA国际影视传媒� In the case of Alberta, however, the case for a shared identity is far less clear under international law. Would SA国际影视传媒淎lbertansSA国际影视传媒� include the Indigenous peoples whose treaties with the Crown pre-date the province itself?

McNeil said that in the past, Indigenous peoples have strongly opposed provincial secession. During QuebecSA国际影视传媒檚 1995 referendum, the James Bay Cree and Inuit in the north held their own referendums SA国际影视传媒� overwhelmingly voting to remain in Canada. He said it's quite possible that Treaty 8 communities in northern Alberta would feel the same.

If Alberta voted to separate from Canada in a referendum and northern Indigenous regions decided to remain, it is uncertain what would happen.

SA国际影视传媒淭hereSA国际影视传媒檚 no clear legal answer,SA国际影视传媒� McNeil admitted. SA国际影视传媒淏ut politically and ethically, Indigenous nations would absolutely need to be at the table. Ignoring them would create major problems.SA国际影视传媒�

The North watches SA国际影视传媒� warily

In the North, weSA国际影视传媒檙e no strangers to being caught between jurisdictional lines. But the idea of Alberta separating raises profound questions SA国际影视传媒� not just for constitutional scholars, but for people in communities that cross territorial and treaty boundaries.

SA国际影视传媒淚f Alberta became a new country, it would have to carry forward Canada's treaty obligations SA国际影视传媒� at least initially,SA国际影视传媒� McNeil said. SA国际影视传媒淏ut what does it do with them after that? ThatSA国际影视传媒檚 a blank slate, and thatSA国际影视传媒檚 whatSA国际影视传媒檚 so concerning.SA国际影视传媒�